• AI for Good Simulator

    Modeling the spread of COVID-19 within refugee camps for timely interventions

  • Problem

    Refugee camps lack a strategy to combat COVID-19 because:

    1

    High density

    Moria's population density is 204K people / km2 vs. London's 4.5K people / km2

    2

    Sanitation

    1 toilette per 167 people, 1 tap per 1300 people, waiting lines are 2-3 hours

    3

    Malnutrition

    Food distributions fall short of daily nutritional requirements

    4

    Poor Health

    Not enough ICU bed, chronic and respiratory diseases, PTSD

    5

    Legal Status

    Asylum seekers are not included in national plans and basic healthcare

  • Solution

    To address this problem we built two different models using

    Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological modeling approach:

    Agent-based Model

    Based on: ABM for cholera spread in Daabab refugee camp (George Mason University)

    • Digital prototype of Moria Camp
    • 500 agents act based on rules informed by research; UNHCR and experts outline behaviour and demographics
    • Model implemented in Netlogo
    • Health inputs: Transmission probability, Incubation time, Infection and recovery probabilities

    Compartment Model

    Based on: Epidemic calculator for COVID19 (Gabriel Goh et al)

    • “Macro” method models population as a whole 
    • Model repurposed in python’s streamlit module → our own mobile dashboard 
    • Key inputs are aligned with parameters estimate from Princess Diamond cruise ship (R0, Tinc, Tinf)
  • Modeling Conclusions

    Which intervention strategies should be deployed within refugee camps?

    Reducing fatalities

    Reducing R0 (virus reproductive factor) will significantly reduce fatalities

    Effective interventions

    ABM model: PPE provided to full population + isolating vulnerable population

    Urgent action is key

    Compartment model: Intervening urgently after first confirmed COVID-19 cases is key

  • Impact

    Real time insights from our models will have impact in the following areas:

    Empower NGOs

    Essential supply forecasting

    Serve as a tool for NGOs and grassroots organisations to mobilise action and coordinate efforts to slow down the spread of COVID-19

    Inform Policy Making

    Decision making on the ground

    Inform governments, camp management and local authorities and help them make responsible decisions in a timely manner

    Save People's Lives

    Reducing the spread and fatalities

    Identify the most effective COVID-19 interventions designed for refugee camps and help avoid severe casualties

  • We need your help!

    We are looking for partners and volunteers - please get in touch if you are interested

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