• AI for Good Simulator

    Modeling the spread of COVID-19 within refugee camps for timely interventions

  • Problem

    Refugee camps lack a strategy to combat COVID-19 because:


    High density

    Moria's population density is 204K people / km2 vs. London's 4.5K people / km2



    1 toilette per 167 people, 1 tap per 1300 people, waiting lines are 2-3 hours



    Food distributions fall short of daily nutritional requirements


    Poor Health

    Not enough ICU bed, chronic and respiratory diseases, PTSD


    Legal Status

    Asylum seekers are not included in national plans and basic healthcare

  • Solution

    To address this problem we built two different models using

    Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological modeling approach:

    Agent-based Model

    Based on: ABM for cholera spread in Daabab refugee camp (George Mason University)

    • Digital prototype of Moria Camp
    • 500 agents act based on rules informed by research; UNHCR and experts outline behaviour and demographics
    • Model implemented in Netlogo
    • Health inputs: Transmission probability, Incubation time, Infection and recovery probabilities

    Compartment Model

    Based on: Epidemic calculator for COVID19 (Gabriel Goh et al)

    • “Macro” method models population as a whole 
    • Model repurposed in python’s streamlit module → our own mobile dashboard 
    • Key inputs are aligned with parameters estimate from Princess Diamond cruise ship (R0, Tinc, Tinf)
  • Modeling Conclusions

    Which intervention strategies should be deployed within refugee camps?

    Reducing fatalities

    Reducing R0 (virus reproductive factor) will significantly reduce fatalities

    Effective interventions

    ABM model: PPE provided to full population + isolating vulnerable population

    Urgent action is key

    Compartment model: Intervening urgently after first confirmed COVID-19 cases is key

  • Impact

    Real time insights from our models will have impact in the following areas:

    Empower NGOs

    Essential supply forecasting

    Serve as a tool for NGOs and grassroots organisations to mobilise action and coordinate efforts to slow down the spread of COVID-19

    Inform Policy Making

    Decision making on the ground

    Inform governments, camp management and local authorities and help them make responsible decisions in a timely manner

    Save People's Lives

    Reducing the spread and fatalities

    Identify the most effective COVID-19 interventions designed for refugee camps and help avoid severe casualties

  • We need your help!

    We are looking for partners and volunteers - please get in touch if you are interested

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